Among the sports betting public there's a lot of conflicting opinions about betting NFL preseason games. That's not really surprising, since there doesn't seem to be much middle ground on the subject. Overly cautious handicappers would argue that preseason football is a poor wagering opportunity. Some of the more obnoxious tout services would have you believe that short of a fixed game there is no greater "lock" that preseason football. Like most things that produce such polarized opinions, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle of the two extremes. Preseason NFL football is a unique proposition for the sports gambler, but when approached with caution, discipline and knowledge it can yield some profit.
The opponent of preseason wagering would suggest that its a bad wagering opportunity by its very nature alone--simply stated, the games don't count meaning that the motivation and focus of individual teams is always in question. It's hard enough to identify teams that are in a desirable 'spot' during the regular season, the often conflicting agendas of personnel evaluation, playbook testing, and injury prevention found in the preseason makes it impossible. All told, this uncertainty makes it very undesirable to get financially involved with preseason NFL games.
The proponent of preseason wagering would argue that this is the very reason that good opportunities frequently arise during preseason. First, additional value is frequently found with the underdog in preseason games by their very nature. To explain, in a hypothetical matchup between a Superbowl champion and an also-ran the "better" team by regular season standards would invariably be favored. However, by virtue of their success the "better" teams have not only more 'marquee names' to protect, but also valued guys in the trenches who could cause big problems if injured. Frequently, they'll have more depth and thus fewer personnel evaluation decisions to deal with. They'll have no need to "create a winning attitude", nor will they usually have wholesale changes in team composition, offensive or defensive strategy, or coaching philosophies to deal with. In short, the "better" teams often go into preseason situations with little to accomplish other than to get the games over with and stay healthy.
Now, lets look at the other side of the equation. A "lesser" team by regular season standards might have a number of starting spots or key backup spots up for grabs. They may have new coaches to impress, or new offensive or defensive coordinators whose schemes they'll have to implement. Certainly, winning any games"whether or not they count in the standings"are of utmost importance to losing teams trying to turn things around. Finally, a bad team can gain a lot more psychologically from beating a playoff team than the playoff team can from beating a doormat. A struggling team that is destined to lose a lot during the regular season won't have a lot of bright spots, so a preseason win against one of the league's elite can mean a lot more.
Even among teams that don't worry much about wins and losses during the preseason, they don't want to go into the season losing them all. For that reason, one of the most successful preseason situations over the past decade and a half have been teams that lost their first two preseason affairs. During that span, 0-2 teams have hit right around 60% against the spread.
Perhaps nothing determines a team's approach to the preseason more than the philosophy of the head coach. Some coaches simply hate to lose anytime they line 'em up to play football, and as a result their teams are usually good preseason bets. Bill Parcells was famous for the preseason focus of his teams. Not surprisingly, many who worked with Parcells earlier in their careers are now carving out their own records of preseason success. This sort of dominance isn't lost on the linesmaker and a coach like the Giants' Tom Coughlin (a former Parcells assistant) will have his ATS success will definitely been factored into the pointspread. Still, a motivated team that wants to win is always worthy of consideration.
The smart preseason handicapper makes use of the Internet, and more specifically uses it to follow the local sports media of NFL teams. During NFL preseasons, teams' beat writers are anxious to write stories and need to fill articles but have little in the way of "real" news to write about. As a result, a handicapper can frequently find valuable details like a coach's goals for the game, playing time for key players, and specific strategies that will be implemented. Occasionally, coaches will come out and say that they're more interested in evaluating certain players for certain positions than they are in the outcome of the game. A thorough evaluation of this type of media coverage can often produce not only teams to play "on", but teams with priorities other than winning to play "against".
In conclusion, there are certainly strong opportunities for profit in NFL preseason wagering but its essential to understand that it cannot be approached in the same manner as the regular season. And, as always, its important to remember that there will be more strong opportunities down the road and that discipline and rigor in handicapping is just as crucial in the preseason NFL as it is at any other time of the year.
The opponent of preseason wagering would suggest that its a bad wagering opportunity by its very nature alone--simply stated, the games don't count meaning that the motivation and focus of individual teams is always in question. It's hard enough to identify teams that are in a desirable 'spot' during the regular season, the often conflicting agendas of personnel evaluation, playbook testing, and injury prevention found in the preseason makes it impossible. All told, this uncertainty makes it very undesirable to get financially involved with preseason NFL games.
The proponent of preseason wagering would argue that this is the very reason that good opportunities frequently arise during preseason. First, additional value is frequently found with the underdog in preseason games by their very nature. To explain, in a hypothetical matchup between a Superbowl champion and an also-ran the "better" team by regular season standards would invariably be favored. However, by virtue of their success the "better" teams have not only more 'marquee names' to protect, but also valued guys in the trenches who could cause big problems if injured. Frequently, they'll have more depth and thus fewer personnel evaluation decisions to deal with. They'll have no need to "create a winning attitude", nor will they usually have wholesale changes in team composition, offensive or defensive strategy, or coaching philosophies to deal with. In short, the "better" teams often go into preseason situations with little to accomplish other than to get the games over with and stay healthy.
Now, lets look at the other side of the equation. A "lesser" team by regular season standards might have a number of starting spots or key backup spots up for grabs. They may have new coaches to impress, or new offensive or defensive coordinators whose schemes they'll have to implement. Certainly, winning any games"whether or not they count in the standings"are of utmost importance to losing teams trying to turn things around. Finally, a bad team can gain a lot more psychologically from beating a playoff team than the playoff team can from beating a doormat. A struggling team that is destined to lose a lot during the regular season won't have a lot of bright spots, so a preseason win against one of the league's elite can mean a lot more.
Even among teams that don't worry much about wins and losses during the preseason, they don't want to go into the season losing them all. For that reason, one of the most successful preseason situations over the past decade and a half have been teams that lost their first two preseason affairs. During that span, 0-2 teams have hit right around 60% against the spread.
Perhaps nothing determines a team's approach to the preseason more than the philosophy of the head coach. Some coaches simply hate to lose anytime they line 'em up to play football, and as a result their teams are usually good preseason bets. Bill Parcells was famous for the preseason focus of his teams. Not surprisingly, many who worked with Parcells earlier in their careers are now carving out their own records of preseason success. This sort of dominance isn't lost on the linesmaker and a coach like the Giants' Tom Coughlin (a former Parcells assistant) will have his ATS success will definitely been factored into the pointspread. Still, a motivated team that wants to win is always worthy of consideration.
The smart preseason handicapper makes use of the Internet, and more specifically uses it to follow the local sports media of NFL teams. During NFL preseasons, teams' beat writers are anxious to write stories and need to fill articles but have little in the way of "real" news to write about. As a result, a handicapper can frequently find valuable details like a coach's goals for the game, playing time for key players, and specific strategies that will be implemented. Occasionally, coaches will come out and say that they're more interested in evaluating certain players for certain positions than they are in the outcome of the game. A thorough evaluation of this type of media coverage can often produce not only teams to play "on", but teams with priorities other than winning to play "against".
In conclusion, there are certainly strong opportunities for profit in NFL preseason wagering but its essential to understand that it cannot be approached in the same manner as the regular season. And, as always, its important to remember that there will be more strong opportunities down the road and that discipline and rigor in handicapping is just as crucial in the preseason NFL as it is at any other time of the year.
About the Author:
Ross Everett is a widely published freelance writer who covers travel, casino gambling and sports handicapping. He is a staff handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, falconry and scuba diving. He lives in Las Vegas with four dogs and a pet coyote.
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